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What Did Not Cause the Housing Bubble? To fully understand what caused the housing bubble, one needs to examine some of the purported causes that are not valid because these often lead to incorrect policy initiatives. Bad policy initiatives include interest rate regulation, hedge fund regulation, and loan-to-income regulation. Primary Buyer Support Levels in Residential Real Estate Markets The two true real estate investor types, Rent Savers and Cashflow Investors, move in to a market and create a bottom when comparative rents come into alignment with the total cost of ownership. Rent Savers enter the market and begin purchasing real estate. It makes sense for them to do so because ownership becomes a savings over renting (hence the term Rent Saver). What Are the Two Kinds of Real Estate Investors? There are two types of true real estate investors: Rent Savers and Cashflow Investors. These two groups will enter a real estate market without regard to future appreciation because either the cash savings or the positive cashflow warrant the purchase price of the asset. These people are largely immune to the emotional pratfalls of speculators because the value of the investment to them is not dependent upon a profit to be garnered when the asset is sold. They will hold the asset through any price declines because they are not feeling any pain when prices drop. Since these investors will purchase houses even if prices are declining, they are the ones who move in to create a bottom and end the cycle of declining prices. Mortgage Grant Money is easy when you know where to look Free money is definitely something that everyone would like to have right now. With the U.S. real estate being battered by the worst economic turmoil in this century How Does Leverage and Debt Impact Returns on Residential Real Estate? As a speculative investment, residential real estate has the potential to make or lose vast sums of money due to the impact of financial leverage (debt). Houses are typically leveraged at 80% of their value. During the Great Housing Bubble, this leverage was often provided at 100% by various lenders. Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Resets Deflated the Housing Bubble The loan reset issue is not confined to those who bought late in the bubble rally of the Great Housing Bubble. Many borrowers are homeowners who refinanced to take advantage of more favorable loan terms. Most loans originated in the later stages of the bubble rally were adjustable rate mortgages. When these mortgages reset to higher payments, most borrowers defaulted, and their properties went into foreclosure. Subprime Foreclosures Burst the Housing Bubble The first sign of trouble for the housing market was the implosion of subprime in early 2007. Subprime borrowers stopped paying back the loans they were given due to loan resets and payment recasts. These defaults lead to foreclosures. During the bust, the vast majority of properties at auction went back to the lenders because the loan amounts usually exceeded market value. Properties purchased by the lender at a foreclosure auction are called Real Estate Owned or REO. Reactions to the Housing Bubble Burst When a bubble in a financial market pops, it does not explode in spectacular fashion like a soap bubble; it is more comparable to a breached levee which releases water slowly at first. Once the financial levee is ruptured, the equity reservoir loses money at increasing rates. It washes away the imagined wealth of homeowners who bought late in the rally or used home equity lines of credit to fuel consumer spending until the reservoir is nearly empty and the torrent turns to a trickle. Ultimately, the causes of failure are examined, the financial levee is repaired, and the reservoir again holds value, but not until the dreams and equity of many homeowners are washed away. The Supply Curve in Residential Real Estate Bubbles The supply curve is the opposite of the demand curve: sellers will make very few units available at low prices, and sellers will make a great many available at higher prices. Wherever these two curves meet is where supply and demand are in balance and market transactions are taking place. Eighteen Common Lies Realtors Tell Realtors are agents of sellers, and it is not uncommon for them to exaggerate the income and appreciation potential of a given property to help sell it. It is a realtor's job to obtain the highest possible sale price for a piece of real estate. The most common ploy realtors use it to attempt to create a sense of urgency in a buyer. In a seller's market, prices are rising, and buyers already feel a sense of urgency. In a buyer's market, prices are falling, and there is no urgency on the part of buyers. This fact does not stop realtors from trying to create urgency even if the truth is cast asunder. Price-To-Rent Ratios as a Measure of Residential Real Estate Value Price-to-rent ratios represent the cost of a dwelling unit relative to the cost of a comparable dwelling unit. This ratio is also subject to the same variability exhibited by the price-to-income ratio. This is not surprising considering rent is generally paid out of current income, so incomes and rents tend to track one another fairly closely. Price-To-Income Ratios as a Measure of Residential Real Estate Value Price-to-income ratios represent the amount borrowed relative to the incomes of the borrower. There are many variables that impact house prices, and some of the variability in prices over time can be attributed to changes in these variables; however, since most houses are purchased with lender financing, and since lender financing is linked to income, the price-to-income ratio is the best metric for evaluating long-term housing price trends. The price-to-income ratio does not need to be adjusted for inflation as both prices and income will rise with the general level of inflation. Most of the fluctuations in the ratio are based on changes in financing terms, in particular interest rates, and of course, irrational exuberance. Residential Appraisals and Collateralized Debt Obligations There are three methods of appraising the resale value of residential real estate: the comparative-sales approach, the cost approach, and the income approach. The comparative-sales approach uses recent sales of similar properties in the market because comparable sales reflect the behavior of typical buyers in the marketplace. The cost approach determines market value by calculating the replacement cost of an identical structure plus the cost of the land or lot upon which the house would sit. The income approach determines market value by analyzing market rents of comparable properties and applies the gross rent multiplier of expected rents. Most lenders give the greatest weight to the comparable sales approach when establishing market value before applying any loan-to-value limitations to the loan amount. The income approach is generally only considered for non-owner occupied homes. The three-test approach to appraising market value as used during the Great Housing Bubble is fraught with risk and is seriously flawed. Risk Synergy for Investors in Mortgage-Backed Securities One of the major failings of the credit markets in the Great Housing Bubble was the failure to take a holistic view and evaluate the systemic risks involved. A standard credit analysis reviews various risk parameters and attempts to rate the impact of each. The implicit assumption is that the total risk is equal to the sum of the parts; however this is not necessarily the case. Synergy is when the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, and there is a strong synergy in default loss risk in collateralized debt obligations that became apparent during the Great Housing Bubble. The credit rating agencies failed to identify this risk synergy until after the fact. Mortgage Default Rates and Mortgage Default Losses There is risk of loss in any investment. Investors in residential mortgages do not necessarily lose money when a borrower defaults. In the event of a default, a property will be auctioned at foreclosure, and the investor is paid out of proceeds from the sale of the property. Only in the event that the sale of the property does not cover the outstanding balance on the mortgage does the investor lose money. Therefore, mortgage defaults do not necessarily create mortgage default losses. Credit Rating Agencies and the Secondary Mortgage Market Credit rating and analysis of collateralized debt obligations and all structured finance products are integral to the smooth function of the secondary market for mortgage loans. A credit rating agency is a company that analyzes issuers of debt and debt-like securities and gives them an overall credit rating which measures the issuer's ability to satisfy its debt obligations. Explore The Changing Real Estate World Of Panama Panama for sure is taking full advantage of the recent real estate market and is earning quite good from its resources. As this is one of the most widely visited tourist spots therefore, tourism also is helping in developing this country. The website panamarealestateboom.com, says all about the real estate of Panama. The Structure of a Collateralized Debt Obligation Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are asset-backed securities formed from bundles of residential mortgages. These structures provided the capital delivery mechanism that helped inflate the Great Housing Bubble. CDOs are merely a tool. If used appropriately, they can speed the delivery of capital and create a more efficient capital market. If used inappropriately, they can be a financial weapons of mass destruction, and they can threaten our entire capitalist system. Why did Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae Go Under? The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, also known as Freddie Mac, was created by Congress in 1970 to make possible a secondary mortgage market to provide greater liquidity to banks and other lending institutions to facilitate home mortgage lending. The Federal National Mortgage Corporation, also known as Fannie Mae, was originally created by the Federal Housing Authority (FHA) in 1938. In the beginning, Fannie Mae would securitize FHA loans, and it was the first to create a secondary mortgage market. Valuation of Lots and Raw Land The valuation of land used for residential housing is mysterious and often misunderstood. The valuation of lots and raw land requires a detailed knowledge of construction and marketing costs as well as a good estimate of the sales price of the final product: a residential housing unit. In short, the value of a lot is the total revenue (sales price of the home) minus the costs of production and the necessary profit. Land value is a residual calculation. The Inflation Premium for Residential Real Estate Residential housing does have a cash-saving value, if financed with a fixed rate mortgage. Over time, the growth in income and rents increases the cost of housing for renters. The inflation of housing costs for renters is greatly lessened for homeowners using a fixed-rate mortgage because their housing costs are effectively frozen at the rate of their ongoing mortgage payment. Other costs of home ownership, such as property taxes, insurance and maintenance do still rise with inflation, but since the mortgage payment is about two-thirds of the cost of ownership, fixing this amount provides a large benefit. Over time, the savings accruing to homeowners from a level housing payment can be quite substantial. Applying the technique of discounted cashflow analysis, this savings over time can be evaluated. Negotiating Skills Make a Big Difference in Home Sale Profits The negotiating abilities of buyers and sellers and the overall market environment greatly impact the profits from real estate. Sellers almost universally believe their properties are worth more than the market will bear. People become emotionally attached to their houses, and because it is very valuable to them, they assume it is just as valuable to a person who is not attached to the property. A Few Mortgage Tips To Help You Prevent Foreclosure If you fall behind on your mortgage payments, there are several steps that you can take to help prevent foreclosure. The Appropriate Discount Rate for Residential Real Estate Analysis The investment value of a property can only be measured against other investment opportunities available to an investor. If investors can earn 4.5% by investing in government treasuries, they will demand a higher return to invest in an asset as volatile and as illiquid as residential real estate. The rate of return an investor demands is called a "discount rate." Home Interest Tax Savings Are Always Overestimated When a borrower takes out a home loan, the interest is tax deductible up to a certain amount. For borrowers in the highest marginal tax bracket, the savings can be significant, and this can make a dramatic difference in the true cost of ownership. However, this benefit diminishes over time as the loan is paid off and the interest decreases, unless of course, the borrower has used a toxic interest-only or negative amortization loan. Did Lenders Cause Their Own Credit Crunch? It seems lenders forget basic facts about lending every so often and create a new financial bubble. Perhaps they succumb to the pressure of the investment community or their own shareholders, or perhaps they just start believing their own "innovation" marketing pitch and forget the basics of sound lending practices. Great News For The First Time Home Buyers! Are you planning to buy a new home? If you are a first time home buyer then don’t worry for the money required because new plans and financial programs are now there for you. Through the new 8,000 Tax Credit or to say, the first time home buyer tax credit, the first time home buyers are surely going to enjoy preferences. Predatory Lending in the Housing Bubble - Were You a Victim? The most egregious examples of predatory lending occurred when interest-only loan products where offered to subprime borrowers whose income only qualified them to make the initial minimum payment (assuming the borrower actually had this income). This loan program was commonly known as the two-twenty-eight (2/28). It has a low fixed payment for the first two years, then the interest rate and payment would reset to a much higher value on a fully amortized schedule for the remaining 28 years. Everyone Wants To Live Here... Not! The Great Housing Bubble witnessed many foolish ideas and beliefs about real estate. Among the most foolish was the idea that prices went up because everyone wants to live wherever they are. When rational arguments fail to explain something, it is only natural that people will start making things up. Prime, Alt-A and Subprime - The Three Categories of Borrowers Borrowers are broadly categorized by the characteristics of their payment history as reflected in their FICO score. FICO risk scores are developed and maintained by the Fair Isaac Corporation utilizing a proprietary predictive model based on an analysis of consumer profiles and credit histories. These models are updated frequently to reflect changes in consumer credit behavior and lending practices. The FICO score is reported by the three major credit reporting agencies, Experian, Equifax and TransUnion. Have California House Prices Always Been Crazy? Volatility in real estate prices is not new to California. During the 1970s, real estate prices detached from typical valuations of three-times yearly income seen in the rest of the country. Once residents realized they could push up prices in their real estate markets to dizzying heights, they have been doing it ever since. Greed springs eternal. What is the Option ARM Payment Rate? A negative amortization loan is any loan where the monthly payment does not cover the monthly interest expense. Interest-only or conventionally amortizing loans do not have this feature, and the monthly payments are based on the interest rate charged and/or the duration of the amortization schedule. Since the negative amortization loan breaks down this traditional relationship, there is a completely separate rate calculated for the minimum payment amount. Do You Understand the Three Types Of Loans - Conventional, Interest-Only, and Negative Amortization? There are 3 main categories of loans: Conventional, Interest-Only, and Negative Amortization. The distinction between these loans is how the amount of principal is impacted by monthly payments. Conventional loans pay off the debt, interest only loans neither increases or decreases the debt, and negative amortization loans add to the debt. Where Is The Epicenter Of The Housing Bubble? The epicenter of the Great Housing Bubble is located in Irvine, California. One of the primary causes of the bubble was the lowering of lending standards and the extension of credit to people who could not handle the responsibility: Subprime borrowers. The word "subprime" has become indelibly linked to the Great Housing Bubble. It is one of the causal factors that make the bubble unique, and the collapse of subprime is widely regarded as the pin-prick which began the bubble's deflation. The Housing Bubble was a Massive Real Estate Ponzi Scheme People have not fully grasped the changes that will result from the deflation of The Great Housing Bubble. There are many historic parallels with the closest being The Great Depression. When the stock market bubble of the 1920s began to deflate in late 1929, few thought the boom times of the decade were over, and even fewer saw the disaster coming of The Great Depression. The 2008/2009 recession will not likely reach the severity of The Great Depression, but it will signal the end to the lifestyle to which so many have become accustomed. People Will Not Want Mortgage Debt in the Future The next big psychological change to impact housing will be a change in homebuyer's relationship with debt. When prices were going up, and nobody thought they were going to have to pay the debt off themselves, people borrowed all they could. Once prices stopped going up, and people were faced with paying off these enormous debts, the appetite for borrowing cooled significantly. The One Stop Mortgage and Home Loan Solutions Murfreesboro, Brentwood, Clarksville and all of Tennessee and Nashville home loan mortgage solutions and secrets have finally been unveiled in a radically designed website; an educational, informative and inspirational site, www.yourmoneysource.net is fully equipped with Nashville home loans and mortgage related info, loads of free reports, a home buying guide and free mortgage calculators. Specifically designed to enlighten the site visitors, YourMoneySource.net reveals all facts and figures aimed to empower our customers to take sensible decisions while obtaining a mortgage. The Key to Housing Affordability Is Not Mortgage Finance The difficult problem with affordable housing is how to provide it without making it unaffordable. Finance is not the answer. We all want affordable housing. There are numerous government programs designed to provide low-cost rental and ownership properties to people in all walks of life. Lenders, builders, realtors and buyers all benefit from affordable housing because affordability means an increase in transaction volumes and more money into the pockets of those dependant on the real estate market. Regulating the National Association of Realtors Would Help Prevent the Next Housing Bubble The sales tactics of the National Association of Realtors should be examined and potentially come under the same restrictions as securities brokers through the Securities and Exchange Commission. Realtors routinely lie about the investment potential of residential real estate. People believe these lies and enter into transactions that often harm them financially. Regulating Loan Amounts Would Help Prevent the Next Housing Bubble The parameters of the forming limitations on the debt-to-income ratio and combined-loan-to-value are essential to prevent bubbles in the housing market and to prevent the banking system from becoming imperiled in the future. Loan amounts much be tethered to incomes and limited by existing property values. Without these limits, prices can take flight with lender capital. During the crash, lenders saw values drop below their loan amounts, and they lost a great deal of money. Strict Loan Documentation Standards Will Help Prevent the Next Housing Bubble One of the most egregious practices of the Great Housing Bubble was the fabrication of income by borrowers that was facilitated and promoted by originating lenders. Stated-income loan programs were widespread, and they were the cause of much of the uncertainty in the secondary mortgage market during the initial stages of the credit crunch in the deflation of the bubble. Basically, investors had no idea if the borrowers to whom they had lent billions of dollars were capable of paying them back. Professional Help to Modify your Loan In the domain of loan modification, the first and foremost question that invariably takes a tour across your mind is "Can I have my loan modified?" The answer to this question varies upon the recipients. And if you are addressing one such question to www.877youkeep.com, then the feedback in most of the cases is nonetheless than a clear and simple YES. Till date, there had been innumerable legends and myths with the lenders under the limelight, centering on their do's and don’ts during the loan modification process. Changing Appraisal Methods would Prevent the Next Housing Bubble Investor confidence in the market for CDOs and all mortgages was shaken during the decline of the Great Housing Bubble, and rightly so. Investors were losing huge sums, and nobody clearly understood why. There was a widespread belief these losses were caused by some outside factor rather than a systemic problem enabled by the lenders and investors themselves. Recourse and Non-Recourse Loans - What Is the Difference? When a borrower cannot repay a loan, the lender may or may not be able to sue the borrower to collect any shortfall. The key difference is whether or not the loan is classified as a recourse loan or a non-recourse loan. Future Loan Terms and Residential Real Estate Markets One of the primary mechanisms for inflating the Great Housing Bubble was the widespread use of exotic loan terms including interest-only and negative-amortization adjustable rate mortgages. The appeal of interest-only and negative-amortization loans is the lower payments they offer, or their ability to finance larger sums of money with the same payment. These loan terms are unstable, and they may not be offered to future buyers. If these loan programs were eliminated, the financing sums would decline, and home prices would decline along with them. Unemployment and Residential Real Estate Markets Prior to the Great Housing Bubble, house price declines had only been associated with economic downturns and increases in unemployment. As people lost jobs, they lost their ability to make house payments, and many lost their homes in foreclosure. Unemployment is devastating to housing markets. The Housing Bubble - What Buyers Need to Know During the decline of house prices in the deflation of the Great Housing Bubble, price levels will fall to fundamental valuations of historic levels of appreciation, price-to-rent ratios, and price-to-income ratios. The nominal price declines may be impacted by inflation and monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, but inflation adjusted prices will fall precipitously. Housing Bubble Credit Expansion - Credit Inflated the Housing Bubble The Great Housing Bubble was inflated by a massive expansion of credit and the influx of capital into residential mortgages. The expansion of credit took four forms: lower interest rates, lowering or eliminating qualification requirements, different amortization methods, and higher allowable debt-to-income ratios. Mortgage Loans for Bad Credit Having bad credit won't prevent you from owning your own home, but it will cost you tens of thousands of dollars more over the life of your loan. Your credit score changes as time goes by and bad credit can be corrected. It Is Different This Time... Not! Each time the general public creates an asset bubble, they believe the rally in prices is justifiable by fundamentals. When proven methods of valuation demonstrate otherwise, people invent new ones with the caveat, "it is different this time." It never is. Home Price Appreciation and Transaction Fees - Only the Realtors Get Rich Profiting from house price appreciation requires getting more money from the sale of a property than was originally paid for it and not having that profit cancelled out by moving costs, transaction fees, and a large spreads between the cost of ownership and the cost of rental during the ownership period. Buying and selling residential real estate incurs significant transaction costs that are not reflected in the price. It is quite common for properties to sell for more than their purchase price and still be a loss for the seller. However, even if the seller loses money, the realtor gets a commission. Six percent of an owner's house price appreciation goes to paying the realtor. Mortgage Interest Rates and House Prices Mortgage interest rates are determined in an open market and are subject to the forces of supply and demand. These rates are the sum of three main components: riskless rate of return, risk premium, and inflation expectation. The Great Housing Bubble was characterized by historic lows in the federal funds rate, risk premiums and inflation expectations which resulted in the very low mortgage interest rates. These low mortgage interest rates allowed people to finance large sums of money, and these larger bids helped inflate the housing bubble. Buy Now or Be Priced Out Forever... Not! When prices rise faster than their wages, people can obtain less real estate with their income. The natural fear under these circumstances is to buy whatever is available before there is nothing desirable available in a particular price range. This fear of being priced out causes even more buying which drives prices higher. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Price-to-Rent Ratio for Housing is Like the Price-to-Earnings Ratio for Stocks Just as stocks have price-to-earnings ratios (PE Ratios) used to establish relative value, houses have a price-to-rent ratio to establish relative value. Rent is the income or potential earnings a property can produce. It does not matter if the property is rented or if an owner lives in the property. The potential for rent is equal to the potential for earning. Speculative Equity - What Is It and How to Get It? People who purchase real estate use the phrase "building equity" to describe the overall increase in equity over time. However, most people think in terms of capturing speculative equity, the equity gained from other speculators bidding up prices. Everyone wants to make money by doing nothing, and the lure of speculative equity is that one can make millions by simply buying and holding an asset. To really understand equity, it is important to look at the factors which either create or destroy equity to see how market conditions and financing terms impact this all-important feature of real estate. Financial Innovation is a Fallacy When the lending industry developed exotic loan products, they touted them as "innovation," and they sold these toxins far and wide. Since these loans achieved the highest default rates ever recorded, it is apparent the "innovations" of the bubble rally were not entirely successful. The cutting edge is sharp. Innovators often pay a heavy price for attempts at advancement. Sometimes these advances lead to quantum leaps in human knowledge and understanding. Sometimes the time, effort, and money are merely thrown into the abyss. The financial innovations of the Great Housing Bubble are of the latter category. Flip That House... Not! During the Great Housing Bubble, many speculators tried to make money through trading houses. The vast majority of these traders were not professionals but amateurs who thought they could be professionals. Most amateurs ended up losing money because they did not understand what it takes to be successful in a speculative market. They Aren't Making Any More Land... Not! All market pricing is a function of supply and demand. One of the reasons many house price bubbles get started is due to a temporary shortage of housing units. This is a particular problem in California because the entitlement process is slow and cumbersome. Supply shortages can become acute, and prices can rise very quickly. This does not mean land is scarce. It means that the supply of dwelling units is experiencing a temporary shortage. It may seem like a minor distinction, but it is very important. New dwelling units can be created; land cannot. Inflation and Home Equity - What Is the Relationship? House prices historically have outpaced inflation by 0.7% nationally. In a normal market, this is the only appreciation homeowners obtain. This appreciation is caused by wage inflation translating into higher housing payments and the ability of borrowers to obtain larger loan amounts to bid up prices. In some areas where wage growth has outpaced the general rate of inflation, the fundamental valuation of houses has increased faster than inflation. Downpayments Are Back! What Happened to 100% Financing? Downpayments are required again thanks to the credit crunch. Many people thought 100% financing would be made available forever. They were mistaken. One-hundred percent financing will never return because it exposes lenders to too much risk. Stated-Income Loans - How Common Were They? One unique phenomenon of the Great Housing Bubble was the utilization of stated-income loans, also known as "liar loans" because most people were not truthful when stating their income. When house prices were going up, greed motivated many people to buy homes to capture appreciation. Actually having the income to qualify for a loan was a limitation to participating in the financial mania. Stated-income loan programs eliminated this barrier and allowed people to borrow as much as they wanted without concern for home much money they made to cover the payments. House Prices Are Supported By Fundamentals... Not! In every asset bubble people will claim the prices are supported by fundamentals even at the peak of the mania. During the Great Housing Bubble, people believed everyone was making two-times their actual income, and that the unstable loan programs developed during the time were innovations that changed the fundamentals. It was all nonsense. Lies Realtors Tell - Ten of Their Favorites Realtors are agents of sellers. It is their job to obtain the highest possible sale price for a piece of real estate. By law they cannot misrepresent any facts about the property, but when it comes to opinions about the investment potential of the property, or the state of the real estate market, Realtors can say whatever they want. There is currently no restriction on the exaggerations or outright lies realtors are allowed to tell regarding residential real estate market performance. Pick-a-Pay Option ARM Loans - What Are They? The Negative Amortization mortgage (aka, Option ARM or Neg Am) is the riskiest loan imaginable. It has all the risks of an interest-only, adjustable-rate mortgage, but with the added risk of an increasing loan balance. Using this loan, there is the risk of not being able to make the payment at reset, and the borrower is much more at risk of being denied for refinancing because the loan balance can easily exceed the house value. In either case, the home will fall into foreclosure. Renting Versus Owning Residential Real Estate Renting versus owning is both an intellectual, financial decision and an emotional decision. The financial decision is first and foremost an analysis of the comparative cost of renting versus owning. It makes no sense to pay more than rental equivalence to own residential real estate. Many people still do because they are chasing the fantasy of endless appreciation and real estate wealth, but most of these people will find the increased cost of ownership over time negates any appreciation advantage they may obtain. Also, many people have found out painfully that property does not always appreciate in value. Exotic Loan Programs Always Fail Over the last 60 years since World War II ended, a number of experimental loan programs have been attempted. These include interest-only loans, adjustable rate loans, and negative amortization loans among others. It is this group of loans that has consistently failed in the past for one simple reason: if payments can adjust higher, people will default. High default rates doom mortgage programs because these high default rates will eventually cause large default losses for the holders of these loans. Real Estate Speculators Usually Fail Despite the huge price spike in the final two years of the Great Housing Bubble caused by wild speculation, most speculators will lose a great deal of money. They will buy when prices are high, and they will sell when prices are low. The causes are rooted in basic human emotions that work against making the proper decisions to profit in a speculative market. Adjustable Rate Mortgage Payment Recast - What is It? Interest-only and negative amortization payments cannot go on forever. At some point, the loan balance must be paid in full. For all adjustable rate mortgages, there is a mandatory recast after a fixed period of time where the loan reverts to a conventionally amortizing loan to be paid over the remaining portion of a 30 year term. Housing Bubble - Why Should Anyone Care? Why should anyone care about financial bubbles in general and the housing bubble in particular? The first and most obvious reason is that the financial fallout is stressful. Many people lost a great deal of money. Beyond that, the housing bubble had enormous impact on the health of individuals, families and entire communities. Bring Back Paternalism in the Mortgage Market As a society, we have created a system that strongly encourages a borrow-and-spend mentality. Saving in all its forms are punished while borrowing is strongly subsidized and encouraged. The credit orgy of the 00s saw this system taken to its ultimate extreme. The result was a vicious credit crunch, a collapse in asset values, and an economic downturn second in severity only to the Great Depression. Obviously, something needs to change. A little paternalism in the mortgage market is one of a number of necessary regulatory reforms. Real Estate Bubble Fallacies - Can You Identify Them? There are a number of fallacies about residential real estate that either affirm the belief in perpetually rising prices or minimize the fears of a price decline. These fallacies generally revolve around a perceived shortage of housing or a belief that the higher prices are justified by current or future economic conditions. These misperceptions are not the core mechanism of an asset price bubble, but they serve to affirm the core beliefs and perpetuate the price rally. Subprime Containment Theory Was a Lie Conventional wisdom (or market spin) was that the risk of default from subprime would not spill over into Alt-A and Prime loans. This argument was made because these two categories have historically had low default rates. Of course, this argument ignored the "liar loans" taken out by those with higher credit scores, the unmanageable debt-to-income ratios, and payment resets for interest-only and Option ARM loans which were also given to the Alt-A and Prime crowd. Historically, this group had not defaulted because they have not been widely exposed to these loan types. Home Equity - What is It? Many people who purchase real estate have no idea what equity is, what creates it, what destroys it, and what to do with it. People who purchase real estate use the phrase "building equity" to describe the overall increase in equity over time. However, it is important to look at the factors which either create or destroy equity to see how market conditions and financing terms impact this all-important feature of real estate. Unaffordable House Prices, Will It Last Forever? During the Great Housing Bubble, prices detached from their fundamental valuations and became very inflated. This price inflation created a situation where affordability dropped to record low levels in many real estate markets. The fear of buyers was that failure to purchase a property would mean they would never be able to own because they would be priced out forever. For this fear to be realized, prices much sustain inflated levels of low affordability forever. Is this possible? Lose Your Money or Learn to Identify Asset Bubbles Many people did not see the NASDAQ tech-stock bubble. Many people did not see the Great Housing Bubble either. Those who participated in either financial mania lost a great deal of money. People need to know what to look for in order to avoid future financial manias. Interest Rate Resets on an Adjustable Rate Mortgages Are a Problem Many people took out adjustable rate mortgages during the Great Housing Bubble. After 25 years of steadily declining interest rates, people forgot about, or never knew about the risk of rising interest rates and what it would do to their housing payments. Adjustable rate mortgages are great while interest rates are declining. Their payments are lower than fixed rate mortgages, and as interest rates decline, they become an even better deal. However, when interest rates go up again, these loans will become a nightmare. Real Estate Investment versus Real Estate Speculation - What is the Difference? Owner-occupied residential real estate is viewed by many people as a good investment. Realtors often use this idea as part of their sales pitch. This view is fallacious and it is one of the beliefs responsible for creating an asset price bubble. To understand why houses are not a great investment in most circumstances, one needs to understand the difference between investment and speculation. Low Mortgage Interest Rates, It Is a Bad Time to Buy A House The fluctuation in mortgage interest rates has implications for when it the best time to buy and the best time to refinance a home mortgage. It is a popular misconception that low interest rates make for a good buying opportunity. It is not. Buy when interest rates are high, and refinance when interest rates are low. Real Estate Only Goes Up... Not! The mantra of the National Association of Realtors is "real estate only goes up." This economic fallacy fosters the belief in future price increases and the limited risk of buying real estate. In 2006, prices in many markets began to fall. By 2008, the rate of price decline had greatly accelerated. This is dramatic proof that real estate does not always go up. Despite this obvious fact, the National Association of Realtors still tries to lure greedy buyers with fantasies of unlimited wealth in residential real estate. Higher Interest Rates and Residential Real Estate Markets - What Would Happen? A key factor impacting the fundamental value of housing and thereby the bottom is interest rates. Higher interest rates would devastate residential real estate markets. When interest rates go up, the amounts borrowed go down assuming a consistent payment. As amounts borrowed go down, so do real estate prices. Debt-to-Income Ratios Impact on Residential Real Estate Markets The debt-to-income ratio is a measure of how far buyers are "stretching" to buy real estate. Buyers have historically committed larger sums to purchase real estate when prices are rising in order to capture the appreciation of rising prices. Conversely, buyers have historically committed smaller and smaller percentages of their income toward buying real estate when prices are declining because there is little incentive to overpay. Some may look at this phenomenon as a passive effect of the rise and fall of prices, but since buying is a choice, the fluctuation in debt-to-income ratios is an active force on prices in the market. Hyperinflation and the Housing Market The Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke began aggressively lowering interest rates at the end of 2007 in response to the severe economic downturn caused by the collapse of house prices and the related difficulties falling house prices had on the banks and other institutions that made loans using houses as collateral. Many are concerned that these policies will ignite a period of hyperinflation in the United States. Housing Market Bottom - Price-to-Income Ratio Estimates One method used to evaluation residential real estate prices is the price-to-income ratio. Since people borrow the vast majority of the funds necessary to purchase residential real estate, and this borrowing must be financed from current income, the ratio of house prices to rent is a useful barometer of market valuation. With the Current Stock Market Malaise, Investment in Phoenix Real Estate Makes Even More Sense The Phoenix residential real estate market represents a great opportunity to individuals, families, and investors who are weary about the stock market and are realizing that their investment portfolios are too exposed to fluctuations in Wall Street. With the Current Stock and Credit Market Crises, Investment in Real Estate Will Make Even More Sense in the Future With the current financial crisis pervading stock markets in the global ecomony, real estate once again should be looked at as a serious, long-term investment strategy that can help investors further diversify their investment portfolios in the future. State of the Phoenix Real Estate Market Address To members of Congress, President Bush, President-Elect Obama, fellow Americans, and current and future residents of the Phoenix area, the state of the Phoenix residential real estate market is “weary but hopeful.”